IBM’s Domino/Notes market – Let’s face it, it’s a cash cow.

What did I learn from my article about IBM’s and Microsoft’s market share? At least that nobody told me how the market share calculation really works. There are two numbers: 47’000 companies (down from 60’000 about 5 years ago) and a total of 192 million Notes licenses sold (up from 143 million about 5 years ago). That’s not really helpful. Let’s leave it at that. But that made me think about the future of Notes/Domino in general. The yellow bubble is groaning about IBM’s almost non existent marketing effort for Notes. Why isn’t IBM promoting Domino/Notes as we think it should? Do they really know what they are doing? Is there a plan? To find out I dusted of some of my marketing books and tried figure out, what strategy IBM is following. It looks like, they know more or less, what they are doing.
If they have a plan, Lotus Notes/Domino is a cash cow today. Or in other terms, it is a mature product and the product life cycle is closer to the end, then to the start. That is not a bad thing by itself, but it is a something we have to accept. IBM is showing standard behavior. It is not investing heavily in marketing because it does not make sense. IBM is continuing improving Notes/Domino to keep the customer base happy. Sometimes there is even a big win, but all in all, sales are sliding downwards. That is something completely normal in a product life cycle. We will see that happening with MS Office, Exchange and Sharepoint, too one day.

What would I do with that cash cow? I would milk it to the last drop and do gradual improvements and then kill it. But I would grow a new beast at the same time. That’s (from my point of view) what IBM is doing right now. I only think, that they are a bit late in the game. They should have started to build a replacement product much earlier. But it is possible, that Workplace should have been that replacement. Is project Vulcan part of that completely new product? I don’t know, but I hope it is.

If I had to design a replacement product I would do quite a few things, which my BPs probably wouldn’t like.
I would build an (almost) completely new product and cut as many legacy connections as possible. Fast, good looking and widely available.
I would provide a migration tool, but I would really strip especially the client from ballast. Is it really necessary to have 6 or 7 different programming languages? I don’t think so. One good one would be sufficient. RAD does not seem to attract a lot of sales. In the end, the admins kill RAD because they definitely don’t want every user to develop it’s own little app (at least the admins IBM is talking to).
I would want a client that lets me not only organise mails, but also calendar entries, office documents, sms, mms, chats or just anything that contains information which is necessary for my work and preferably I want to have the stuff offline and encrypted.
I would add VOIP as a standard feature.
I want to see all my documents under the customer and supplier and friend and tag and project and whatever or in a calendar view. Let’s get rid of folder structures in file systems or mail applications. We don’t need that, it never worked. It was and is the biggest data cemetery in the known universe.
I would want to add addresses by drag and drop from my and others address book to a document regardless if it is an email, sms, letter, fax, blog entry or whatever else and I want to decide AFTER having written the document, how I want to send it.
I would make the new client modular. For example for free without a server and mail, Facebook and calendar only, but fast (somebody remembers NotesBuddy? I liked that one a lot) and then add whatever else is needed (at a very reasonable fee…).
I would add MAPI support to client and server.
I would add complete iCal and CalDav support.
I would add a simple back up functionality to client and/or server.
I would integrate as many online services as possible.
I would add an easy way to use several email accounts.
I would provide a free online calendar access for everybody using my client. Now users could just use free POP accounts and still have the calendar sharing possibility.
… and I could go on.
Most of these elements are already around but nobody adds it up to a complete solution.

Lotus was always ahead of Micro$oft, but they keep up. Now they add offline support for Sharepoint thanks to Groove. That was one of the best features of Notes/Domino.
Let’s face it. All the features we always thought were so incredible cool did not stop customers from migrating to Outlook/Exchange and nothing else will stop that until IBM comes out with something new.

We need something exciting, never seen before and useful to about everyone (for my 7 year old daughter I want a „Hello Kitty“ Theme)… a new rising star if IBM wants to beat Microsoft. IMHO that will be the way to success.

But… and that is big BUT. Can IBM do this? Big companies have the tendency to be not very innovative. Bureaucracy and internal competition are the killers. Microsoft is the best example for this. They almost always only copy what others have done before. IBM is better, but not a lot. The most patents every year but not many new products. Evolution yes, innovation less.
Let’s keep the fingers crossed, that IBM really knows what it is doing.

Lotus Foundations is …whatever you call it … but I go for Collax.

I am right now installing the Collax Platform Server. Those who know me, know that I hate server and network administration with a passion you can only dream of. That‘s why I liked LF. But the Collax products are as good if not better. I am almost as fast in installing the first Collax Box as I was with the x-ième LF Box. It probably does not do as many things automatically as LF, but it has much more possibilities to integrate it and security wise.

The web administration front end has a modern look and is very nice to navigate.
Installing software is completely automatic. Less clicks then LF.
Virtualisation is done with KVM which integrates seamlessly. Not like the strange setup with „run“ like LF, which is pretty unstable on our production server.

I am really happy to have found Collax. Yesterday we talked about Domino on Collax and we are going to find out the best way to do it. I have to update the Domino discussion in the Collax forum with those new ideas.

I hope you will give it a try. If you register with them and ask for a test license, you get a 60 days license and full support during this time.

I am running the Collax Platform Server on a Lotus Foundations appliance. Collax had for a long time also a display in their hardware. The code is still there and we could use it. But that isn‘t really necessary right now.

What‘s market share in IBM/Microsoft Terms?

When Daimler announced the switch from Notes to Outlook, somebody mentioned a market share of Domino/Notes of 21% in Germany. I wondered where they got that number from.
I started to crunch a few numbers myself and first looked at my home market. There are about 400 more or less active Domino customers. Switzerland has about 300‘000 companies with roughly 40‘000 of a size needing a mail server. That‘s a market share of 1%. And that is being nice, since almost everyone of those companies have mail and use some sort of mail server, either their own or something „in-the-cloud“.
Globally IBM has 47‘000 Domino customers. Even if they were all in the US it would also be a market share of about 1%. What do they count? Don‘t tell me that they count user licenses. That would be statistical nonsense, since not every element of the sample takes a decision to use Notes or Outlook. There are not 145 million decisions for Notes, only 47‘000. Now what are they counting? I don‘t have a clue. Servers? That would be unfair, since you need many more Exchange servers then Domino servers for the same number of users. Global 500 companies only? Or enterprise accounts?
Now what? Until somebody tells me, how they make the market share up, I stick with my estimation of a global market share of 1% for Lotus. I know, this number is not fair, because I also count companies which have just a few applications left.
Now let‘s see if somebody can explain, how the market share is calculated. In a second post, I will write about the results and what to do with it.