This morning I read the article of Peter Presnell. I do agree with his findings but one thing made me think:
Research conducted by GBS suggests that there are somewhere between 10 and 20 million Notes applications in the world.
They did this „Research“ for Transformer. I wrote about it before when I saw, that some „analyst“ claimed a possible market of 18 billion $. At that moment I thought, that even GBS must have realized that this isn’t the real world. Let’s chew a few numbers.
There are some 100 Million Notes user licenses sold. That is since Notes 1. Those are not the users that use Notes right now. Let’s assume that IBM has 50’000 Notes customers (that’s too high, but when in doubt …). If they have an average of 1000 Users, we would have 50 million users today. That would mean there would be between 2.5 and 5 users per Notes application. Does somebody really think, that a company with 1000 users would be able to maintain 200 to 400 different(!) (Transformer is licensed per template) applications? Mind you, that is without any mail, contacts and any other application that ships with Notes/Domino or was downloaded from OpenNTF, which nobody would touch with the Transformer or are already „xpaged“. Even if we forget the „different“, it would be too high. With all the personal apps included (mail, contacts…) it is too low.
I don’t know who did the „research“ but it looks like that guy hasn’t seen a lot of Notes/Domino installations. I am pretty sure, it must have raised a few eyebrows at GBS. What I do not understand is, if this research is obviously completely and utterly wrong, why didn’t they just kicked it in the bin and started all over again?
That something is wrong with GBS is reflected in the stock price: 0.24$. That’s 94.48% less than when it started trading at the NASDAQ (the one year target est. is still 9 bucks). All those who have sold their company to GBS for funny money (i.e. GBS stocks) have my sympathy. Some of them have seen their retirement funds go up in smoke. That sucks. You nurtured your baby for decades, build a reputation, a customer base, a team that works well and then you give it in new hands, with all the hope that, what was until then a very big part of your life, will continue to grow and prosper … and 18 month later you scan the newspaper for job offers.
But my father always said, that you must always see the positive side of it, too. It could be a chance for anybody looking for new customers and one hell of good human capital (what a terrible word for individual persons). The market capitalisation is around 7 million now. What if we collected a bit of money and offer them 0.1$ per share? At the rate the stock price is descending right now, it will be there by the end of the year anyway. Anybody up for it?
(BTW (Disclaimer): That’s my personal opinion. Nothing to do with Informica at all)